Security foresight – Digithemis

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FROM FICTION TO SECURITY RISK	WHEN FICTION PREDICTS SECURITY RISKS	SECURITY PROSPECT AND ROMANTIC ANTICIPATION
In 1998 schrijft from French author Maud Tabchnik in “The circles of hell”, about an imaginary Islamic millionaire who wants to create chaos in the decadent and non-Islamic democracies with his terrorist organization. Two years earlier, Tom Clancy sold millions of copies of his book “Stay of Execution,” in which a Japanese kamikaze crashes a jumbo jet into the Capitol in Washington.	In 1998, the French author Maud Tabachnik imagined in her novel « The circles of hell », an Islamic billionaire at the centre of a worldwide organisation of terrorists whose sole aim was to reap havoc in decadent non-Islamic democracies. Two years earlier, the American novelist Tom Clancy had sold millions of copies of his thriller « Executive orders », where a Japanese kamikaze crashes a jumbo jet into the Capitol Building in Washington.	In 1998, French author Maud Tabachnik imagines in her novel “The Circles of Hell” a Muslim millionaire at the heart of a global terrorist organization whose sole purpose is to sow chaos in decadent non-Muslim democracies. Two years before, American novelist Tom Clancy sells millions of copies of his thriller “On Order”, in which a Japanese suicide bomber crashes a plane into the Capitol in Washington.

“The Fall of a Fundamentalist” (Mohsin Hamid), published in 2007 (VS), describes how a perfectly integrated Pakistani citizen becomes a terrorist. Two years later, Major Nidal Hassan kills thirteen people at an American base. Three years later, op 1 mei 2010, American-Pakistani Faisal Shahzad tries to explode a car near Times Square in New York.

Published in 2007 in the USA, “The Reluctant Fundamentalist” described the transformation of a totally integrated Pakistani into a terrorist. Two years later, Major Nidal Hasan killed 13 people on an American base, and on 1st May 2010, Faisal Shahzad, from American-Pakistani origin, tried to detonate a car near Time Square.

Published in the USA in 2007, « The Reluctant Fundamentalist » described the transformation of a Pakistani perfectly integrated into the USA into a terrorist. Two years later, Commander Nidal Hasan killed 13 people on an American base and May 1 2010 Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani-American, tried to blow up a car near Time Square.

Can predictions in the literature influence the assessment of future safety risks? ?	Could novelistic anticipation play a role in the security foresight processes?	Can romantic anticipation find its place in security foresight? ?
The answer depends on the choice of method: inductive or deductive.	One answer lies in the choice of the method: inductive or deductive.	One answer lies in the choice of method : inductive or deductive.
Experience does not always guarantee correct predictions (an example is the miscalculation of Israeli services during the Yom Kippur War), but creativity is essential for a hypothetico-deductive approach.	Experience does not ensure the validity of the forecasts (miscalculation by Israeli intelligence – Yom Kippur War), but creativity is vital for the hypothetico-deductive approach.	Experience does not guarantee the validity of predictions (the Israeli intelligence assessment error – Yom Kippur War) but inventiveness is essential to the hypothetico-deductive approach.

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