Aims

To understand and reconstitute the dynamic of populations in space and time, while taking interaction of the phenomena into account. Scale: national, regional and local populations; observation unit: the household and the individual (micro-simulations). Forward-looking reflection aimed at developing hypotheses and the putting in place of scenarios. Measuring uncertainty.

Main themes

A comparison of currently used definitions and approaches, with a brief history of demographic perspectives and a critical analysis of the "ex-post" outcomes of earlier perspectives.
The basic principles of the method of demographic components and their application to substantive cases. A regional matricial analysis. Projections in respect of households and micro-populations. Elements of sectoral perspectives.

Content and teaching methods

Principles and methods illustrated by animated software where students may observe the dynamic transformations of departure-structures, depending on the choice of scenarios and use of scenarios. Work on spreadsheets and with the help of simulation software.

Other information (prerequisite, evaluation (assessment methods), course materials recommended readings, ...)

Assessment: A complete population perspective (subject to be chosen together with Course DEMO 3485).
Pre-requirement: Course DEMO 3426 ("Demographic analysis: mortality, fertility, migration and structures").

Other credits in programs