Due to the COVID-19 crisis, the information below is subject to change,
in particular that concerning the teaching mode (presential, distance or in a comodal or hybrid format).
5 credits
30.0 h
Q2
Teacher(s)
Bodart Vincent;
Language
French
Main themes
The main focus of the course is the analysis of the economic business cycle, that is the sucession over time of periods of expansion and periods of recession. The course is divided in two parts. The first part is devoted to the presentation of some important stylized facts about the economic business cycles in the advanced economies and to the analysis of the principal economic mechanisms that are considered to be at the origin of business cycle fluctuations.
In the second part, we will examine the tools and methodologies that are necessary to build a rigorous conjonc-tural analysis and to establish short-term macroeconomic forecasts
Aims
At the end of this learning unit, the student is able to : | |
| 1 | The course has two main objectives : (1) analyze the principal economic mechanisms that are at the origin of business cycle fluctuations ; (2) give students the tools and methodologies that are necessary to build a rigorous conjonctural analysis and to establish short-term macroeconomic forecasts. |
Content
Topics
The main focus of the course is the analysis of the economic business cycle, that is the sucession over time of periods of expansion and periods of recession. The course is divided in two parts. In the first part, we will examine the tools and methodologies that are necessary to build a rigorous conjonctural analysis and to establish short-term macroeconomic forecasts. The second part is devoted to the presentation of some important stylized facts about the economic business cycles in the advanced economies and to the analysis of the principal economic mechanisms that are considered to be at the origin of business cycle fluctuations.
Content
Introduction
Part I. Conjonctural analysis
Part II: Business cycles : definitions, stylized facts and et analysis
The main focus of the course is the analysis of the economic business cycle, that is the sucession over time of periods of expansion and periods of recession. The course is divided in two parts. In the first part, we will examine the tools and methodologies that are necessary to build a rigorous conjonctural analysis and to establish short-term macroeconomic forecasts. The second part is devoted to the presentation of some important stylized facts about the economic business cycles in the advanced economies and to the analysis of the principal economic mechanisms that are considered to be at the origin of business cycle fluctuations.
Content
Introduction
Part I. Conjonctural analysis
- Chapter 1. Tools and methods
- Chapter 2. Conjonctural diagnosis and short-term macroeconomic forecasting
Part II: Business cycles : definitions, stylized facts and et analysis
- Chapter 3. Definitions of the business cycle
- Chapter 4. The business cycle : empirical facts
- Chapter 5. The dynamics of the business cycle
- Chapter 6. The stabilization of the business cycle since 1980
- Chapter 7. The international synchronization of business cycles
Teaching methods
Due to the COVID-19 crisis, the information in this section is particularly likely to change.
A syllabus is available and a list of additional readings is provided. Within Part I, the students will have to work by groups on a case study.
Evaluation methods
Due to the COVID-19 crisis, the information in this section is particularly likely to change.
Learning outcomeAt the end of the course, students are supposed to have a good understanding of what are the principal economic mechanisms that are at the origin of business cycle fluctuations. Students are also supposed to know how to use properly the tools and methodologies that are necessary to build a rigorous conjonctural analysis and to establish short-term macroeconomic forecasts.
Evaluation procedure
The evaluation is composed of a written exam (syllabus and readings) and the report of the case study (work in group). The weight of the case study report is the final grade is determined according to the result of the written exam. It varies between 30% and 50%. The weighting scheme will be communicated precisely during the class.
If, for whatever reasons, a student has not undertaken the case study but however decides to take the written exam, the note of its written exam will not count for the final grade. Its final note will therefore be 0/20. Furthermore, if he has no valuable reasons (sickness, ...) that explain why he has not undertaken the case study during the course period, it will not be allowed to undertake the case study for the second examination period (within a same academic year).
If a student fails during its first participation at the exam but has undertaken the case study, he will only be allowed to undertake the written exam during its second participation at the exam (within the same academic year). The note of the case study will be unchanged.
Depending on the evolution of the epidemic crisis, it may be decided to cancel the written exam or to replace the wrtitten exam by an additional work to be achieved in groups (the groups will be the same as for the case study). If the exam is replaced by a work, the students will be informed on due time about the content of the new assignment. The students will also be informed about the weight of this new work with respect to the case study. The other evaluation rules will still apply.
Other information
Prerequesite: Undergraduate macroeconomics
Online resources
Syllabus + slides + readings
Bibliography
- Cycles économiques, analyse conjoncturelle et prévisions
Teaching materials
- Cycles économiques, analyse conjoncturelle et prévisions
Faculty or entity
ECON
