{"id":38233,"date":"2016-06-16T09:18:02","date_gmt":"2016-06-16T07:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php\/security-foresight\/"},"modified":"2022-05-19T16:40:59","modified_gmt":"2022-05-19T14:40:59","slug":"security-foresight","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/?page_id=38233","title":{"rendered":"Security foresight"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Previous page<\/a><\/td>Back to exhibition’s homepage<\/a><\/td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

\"drapeau\u00a0VAN FICTIE NAAR VEILIGHEIDRISICO<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/td>

\"Drapeau WHEN FICTION PREDICTS SECURITY RISKS<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/td>

\"Drapeau\u00a0PROSPECTIVE SECURITAIRE ET ANTICIPATION ROMANESQUE<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/td><\/tr>

In 1998 schrijft de Franse auteur Maud Tabchnik in \u201cLes cercles de l\u2019enfer\u201d, over een ingebeelde islamitische miljonair die met zijn terroristische organisatie chaos wilt scheppen in de decadente en niet-islamitische democratie\u00ebn. Twee jaar eerder verkocht Tom Clancy miljoenen exemplaren van zijn boek \u201cUitstel van executie\u201d waarin een Japanse kamikaze een jumbo jet laat neerstorten op het Capitool in Washington.<\/span><\/td>In 1998, the French author Maud Tabachnik imagined in her novel \u00ab The circles of hell \u00bb, an Islamic billionaire at the centre of a worldwide organisation of terrorists whose sole aim was to reap havoc in decadent non-Islamic democracies. Two years earlier, the American novelist Tom Clancy had sold millions of copies of his thriller \u00ab Executive orders \u00bb, where a Japanese kamikaze crashes a jumbo jet into the Capitol Building in Washington.<\/span><\/td>En 1998, l\u2019auteure fran\u00e7aise Maud Tabachnik imagine dans son roman \u00ab Les Cercles de l\u2019enfer \u00bb un millionnaire musulman au coeur d\u2019une organisation terroriste mondiale dont le seul dessein est de semer le chaos dans les d\u00e9mocraties d\u00e9cadentes non musulmanes. Deux ans plus t\u00f4t, le romancier am\u00e9ricain Tom Clancy \u00e9coule des millions de copies de son thriller \u00ab Sur ordre \u00bb, dans lequel un kamikaze japonais fait s\u2019\u00e9craser un avion sur le Capitole \u00e0 Washington.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

\"Clancy\"<\/a><\/p>
\u201cDe val een Fundamentalist<\/a>\u201d (Mohsin Hamid), uitgegeven in 2007 (VS), beschrijft hoe een perfect ge\u00efntegreerde Pakistaanse burger een terrorist wordt. Twee jaar later doodt Majoor Nidal Hassan dertien mensen op een Amerikaanse basis. Drie jaar later, op 1 mei 2010, probeert de Amerikaans-Pakistaanse Faisal Shahzad een auto te laten ontploffen bij Times Square in New York.<\/td>Published in 2007 in the USA, \u201cThe Reluctant Fundamentalist<\/a>\u201d described the transformation of a totally integrated Pakistani into a terrorist. Two years later, Major Nidal Hasan killed 13 people on an American base, and on 1st May 2010, Faisal Shahzad<\/a>, from American-Pakistani origin, tried to detonate a car near Time Square.<\/td>Publi\u00e9 aux USA en 2007, \u00ab The Reluctant Fundamentalist<\/a> \u00bb d\u00e9crivait la transformation d\u2019un Pakistanais parfaitement int\u00e9gr\u00e9 aux USA en terroriste. Deux ans plus tard, le commandant Nidal Hasan tuait 13 personnes sur une base am\u00e9ricaine et le 1er mai 2010 Faisal Shahzad, un Am\u00e9ricano-Pakistanais, tentait de faire exploser une voiture aux abords de Time Square.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>

\"fundamentalist\"<\/a><\/p>
Kunnen voorspellingen in de literatuur een invloed hebben op de inschatting van toekomstige veiligheidsrisico\u2019s ?<\/strong><\/td>Could novelistic anticipation play a role in the security foresight processes?<\/strong><\/td>L\u2019anticipation romanesque peut-elle trouver sa place dans la prospective s\u00e9curitaire ?<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Het antwoord hangt af van de keuze van de methode: inductief of deductief.<\/td>One answer lies in the choice of the method: inductive or deductive.<\/td>Une r\u00e9ponse se situe dans le choix de la m\u00e9thode : inductive ou d\u00e9ductive.<\/td><\/tr>
Ervaring garandeert niet altijd juiste voorspellingen (een voorbeeld is de misrekening van de Isra\u00eblische diensten tijdens de Yom Kippoeroorlog), maar creativiteit is essenti\u00ebel voor een hypothetisch-deductieve aanpak.<\/td>Experience does not ensure the validity of the forecasts (miscalculation by Israeli intelligence \u2013 Yom Kippur War), but creativity is vital for the hypothetico-deductive approach.<\/td>L\u2019exp\u00e9rience ne garantit pas la validit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions (l\u2019erreur d\u2019\u00e9valuation du renseignement isra\u00e9lien \u2013 guerre du Kippour) mais l\u2019inventivit\u00e9 est indispensable \u00e0 la d\u00e9marche hypoth\u00e9tico-d\u00e9ductive.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
Previous page<\/a><\/td>Back to exhibition’s homepage<\/a><\/td>\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Previous page Back to exhibition’s homepage \u00a0 \u00a0VAN FICTIE NAAR VEILIGHEIDRISICO WHEN FICTION PREDICTS SECURITY RISKS \u00a0PROSPECTIVE SECURITAIRE ET ANTICIPATION … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":0,"parent":38023,"menu_order":4,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-38233","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/38233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/33"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38233"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/38233\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64393,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/38233\/revisions\/64393"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/38023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.uclouvain.be\/digithemis\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}