Event history analysis in social sciences

Teacher(s)

Bocquier Philippe;

Language

English

Content

This course is a continuation of the course Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences. The focus is on longitudinal analysis. The objectives are:
- To learn the relevant tools to analyse biographical surveys.
- To be able to understand and use the scientific literature using these methods.
- To be autonomous in the use of data analysis software.
- To be able to select a data analysis strategy in relation to the relevant research questions and to present and interpret the results correctly.
6 major themes:
- Event History Analysis: an introduction.
- The format of the biographical data
- Conceptualization of time and event, truncation and censoring, questions to answer before any event history analysis
- Extinction tables, Kaplan-Meier curves, cross-sectional indices
- Semi-parametric model with proportional hazards (Cox)
- Competitive Risk Model (Fine & Gray)

Teaching methods

Due to the COVID-19 crisis, the information in this section is particularly likely to change.

The course follows the principle of flipped classrooms, combined with the principle of just-in-time teaching for some instances.
Videos on theoretical issues will be watched by the students, who will then answer questions. The answers to these questions will be discussed face-to-face.
Other videos on more practical issues will also be viewed, but usually in class, in order to carry out practical exercises (TP: practicals).

Evaluation methods

Due to the COVID-19 crisis, the information in this section is particularly likely to change.

The 10 tasks are scored on 2 points and must be given to the professor via Moodle at the indicated deadlines, 1 to 3 days before the course, each day of delay reducing by one point the note.
The 4 assignments are rated on 3 pts and must be delivered via Moodle at the following deadlines, each day of delay reduces the score by one point.
The oral presentation PowerPoint is to be returned (assignment 5: 3 pts) and the oral presentations will take place in the presence of all the students. Evaluation Criteria (on 10 pts):
- Country Presentation, Data and Methods (2 pts)
- Presentation descriptive analysis results (3 pts)
- Presentation of first results of in-depth analysis (4 points)
- General form and answers to questions (1 pt)
Individual written work (rated out of 55): to be submitted to the incumbent via i-campus AND in hard copy by Friday, January 4, 2019. Evaluation Criteria:
- Presentation of the demographic situation of the country (5 pts)
- Sources and methods used (10 pts)
- Descriptive analysis results of biographies (10 pts)
- Results of in-depth analysis of biographies (20 pts)
- Conclusions (10 pts)
- Presentation graphs, tables, language, bibliography (bonus 2 pts)

Other information

A good knowledge of Stata software or other statistical processing software is essential.
COVID-19 : 
In yellow code, the computer room is large enough to accommodate all the students in person. However, if the number of students is larger than expected or if the orange code is applied, then the teaching will switch to distance learning.
Regardless of the teaching mode, the evaluation mode remains the same. Classroom exercises are adapted to sanitation rules.

Online resources

Videos (screencast), computer programs (Stata) and other materials are available on MoodleUCL.

Bibliography

Reed, H.E. 2012. Moving Across Boundaries: Migration in South Africa, 1950–2000. Demography 50(1):71-95.
Clark, S. & C. Cotton. 2013. Transitions to adulthood in urban Kenya: A focus on adolescent migrants. Demographic Research 28(37):1053-1092.
Widmer, E. & Ritschard, G. 2009. The de-standardization of the life course: Are men and women equal? Advances in Life Course Research 14:28-39.
Gutierrez-Demènech M. 2008. The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain. Journal of Population Economics 21:83-110.
Kamrul Islam, M., Gerdtham, U.-G., Gullberg, B., Lindström, M. & Merlo, J., (2008), Social capital externalities and mortality in Sweden. Economics and Human Biology 6, 19-42.
Manuel: Mario Cleves, William W. Gould, Roberto G. Gutierrez, and Yulia Marchenko (2008) An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata, 2nd Edition, Publisher: Stata Press

Faculty or entity

PSAD