Population models and projections (Part B) [ LDEMO2220B ]

1. Introduction to population projections.
2. Mathematical methods : exponential, logistic and Gompertz models.
3. The cohort component method.
4. Projecting the components of population change :
{ Mortality : extrapolation of death rates, use of model life tables, Lee and Carter (1992)
method.
{ Fertility : extrapolation of fertility rates, use of standard age patterns of fertility, period vs.
cohort approaches.
{ International migration : projection of numbers of migrants and migration rates.
5. Uncertainties in population projections : comparison of scenarios, of projections from dierent
producers, ex-post analyzes.
6. Extensions : multi-state models (household perspectives, perspectives by level of educational
attainment) and micro-simulation models (kinship networks).

Part B of this course is a thorough introduction to methods of population
projections. At the end of this course, students will be able to :
1. master key tools used in population projections,
2. make population projections using the appropriate tools (Excel spreadsheets and projection
software),
3. understand the in
uence of changes in the components of the population dynamics (ferti-
lity, mortality and migration) on changes in populations (volume and structure) at dierent
geographical levels and dierent time horizons,
4. critically interpret the projections results.