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Population models and projections (Part B) [ LDEMO2220B ]


5.0 crédits ECTS  25.0 h + 15.0 h   1q 

Language French
Place
of the course
Louvain-la-Neuve
Main themes PART I Introduction to modelization and to different types of models. Models of relations between population movement and structure (stable and quasi-stable populations) Modelization of age structure of demographic phenomena: mortality (model life tables, laws of mortality…), nuptiality and fertility (Coale-Trussell…), migration (Castro-Rogers). PART II Introdution to population forecasts, their use and limits. Mathematical methods (exponential function, logistic function, Gompertz) Component methods: basic principles (calculation of survivors, births, migrants) Mortality projection methods: extrapolation of probabilities, use of model life-tables, Lee Carter methods,… Methods of fertility projections: probabilities, fertility diagrams, period versus cohort approach,… Methods of international migration projections: projections of net migration, of migration rates,… Urban and regional projections: DTCUR methods, introduction to multi-regional models Uncertainty in forecasts: comparison of scenarios, comparison of forecasts from various sources, ex-post fore-cast analysis,… Introduction to multi-state models (household forecasts, education forecasts) and to micro-simulation models (kinship networks,…) Introduction to several models of indirect estimates or of correction of deficient or incomplete data.
Aims Part I of this course consists in an introduction to the most commonly used models in demography. On the basis of this course, students must be able to - understand the general problematics of modelization - understand the relations between population's movements and structures - proceed to concrete applications of some models (estimation of demographic phenomena or correction of deficient data). Part II of this course consists in a thorough introduction to methods of population projections. After completing the course, the students must be able to : - master the main tools used to make population forecasts - to carry out population forecasts using the appropriate software (Excel, projections and simulation softwa-res) - to understand the impact of changes in fertility, mortality and migration on population trends (numbers and structure) at various geographical levels and over time.
Other information DEMO 2150 : Demographic analysis Individual or group work Course text and portfolio of readings.
Cycle et année
d'étude
> Master [120] in Statistics: General
> Master [120] in Population and Development Studies
Faculty or entity
in charge
> PSAD


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