Population models and projections (Part A) [ LDEMO2220A ]
2.0 crédits ECTS
15.0 h + 5.0 h
2q
| Language |
French
|
Place
of the course |
Louvain-la-Neuve
|
| Main themes |
PART I
Introduction to modelization and to different types of models.
Models of relations between population movement and structure (stable and quasi-stable populations)
Modelization of age structure of demographic phenomena: mortality (model life tables, laws of mortality
),
nuptiality and fertility (Coale-Trussell
), migration (Castro-Rogers).
PART II
Introdution to population forecasts, their use and limits.
Mathematical methods (exponential function, logistic function, Gompertz)
Component methods: basic principles (calculation of survivors, births, migrants)
Mortality projection methods: extrapolation of probabilities, use of model life-tables, Lee Carter methods,
Methods of fertility projections: probabilities, fertility diagrams, period versus cohort approach,
Methods of international migration projections: projections of net migration, of migration rates,
Urban and regional projections: DTCUR methods, introduction to multi-regional models
Uncertainty in forecasts: comparison of scenarios, comparison of forecasts from various sources, ex-post fore-cast analysis,
Introduction to multi-state models (household forecasts, education forecasts) and to micro-simulation models (kinship networks,
)
Introduction to several models of indirect estimates or of correction of deficient or incomplete data.
|
| Aims |
Part I of this course consists in an introduction to the most commonly used models in demography.
On the basis of this course, students must be able to
- understand the general problematics of modelization
- understand the relations between population's movements and structures
- proceed to concrete applications of some models (estimation of demographic phenomena or correction of deficient data).
Part II of this course consists in a thorough introduction to methods of population projections. After completing the course, the students must be able to :
- master the main tools used to make population forecasts
- to carry out population forecasts using the appropriate software (Excel, projections and simulation softwa-res)
- to understand the impact of changes in fertility, mortality and migration on population trends (numbers and structure) at various geographical levels and over time.
|
| Other information |
DEMO 2150 : Demographic analysis
Individual or group work
Course text and portfolio of readings.
|
Cycle et année
d'étude |
> Master [120] in Population and Development Studies
> Master [120] in Statistics: General
|
Faculty or entity
in charge |
> PSAD
|
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|
