UCL - Business cycle analysis and short-term macroeconomic forecasts

[ECON2311]

[30h] 5 credits

Teacher(s): Vincent Bodart, Philippe Ledent(supplée Vincent Bodart), Fatemeh Shadman Valavi(supplée Vincent Bodart)

Language: French

Level: Second

Aims
Main themes
Content and teaching methods
Other information (prerequisite, evaluation (assessment methods), course materials recommended readings, ...)

Aims

The course has two main objectives :
(1) analyze the principal economic mechanisms that are at the origin of business cycle fluctuations ;
(2) give students the tools and methodologies that are necessary to build a rigorous conjonctural analysis and to establish short-term macroeconomic forecasts.

Main themes

The main focus of the course is the analysis of the economic business cycle, that is the sucession over time of periods of expansion and periods of recession. The course is divided in two parts. The first part is devoted to the presentation of some important stylized facts about the economic business cycles in the advanced economies and to the analysis of the principal economic mechanisms that are considered to be at the origin of business cycle fluctuations.
In the second part, we will examine the tools and methodologies that are necessary to build a rigorous conjonc-tural analysis and to establish short-term macroeconomic forecasts

Content and teaching methods

Part I: Business cycles : definitions, stylized facts and et analysis
Chapter 1. Definitions of the business cycle
Chapter 2. The business cycle : empirical facts
Chapter 3. The dynamics of the business cycle
Chapter 4. The stabilization of the business cycle since 1980
Chapter 5. The international synchronization of business cycles
Part II. Conjonctural analysis
Chapter 1. Tools and methods
Chapter 2. The conjonctural diagnosis (analysis of recent economic developments)
Chapter 3. Short-term macroeconomic forecasting

A syllabus is available and a list of additional readings is provided.
Within Part II, the students will have to work by groups on a case study.

Other information (prerequisite, evaluation (assessment methods), course materials recommended readings, ...)

Undergraduate macroeconomics

Written exam + case study

Syllabus + slides + readings

None