Population models and projections
[DEMO2220]
[40h + 20h] 7 credits
Teacher(s): Josianne Duchene, Bruno Schoumaker
Language: French
Level: Second
Aims
On the basis of this course, students must be able to
- understand the general problematics of modelization
- understand the relations between population's movements and structures
- proceed to concrete applications of some models (estimation of demographic phenomena or correction of deficient data).
Part II of this course consists in a thorough introduction to methods of population projections. After completing the course, the students must be able to :
- master the main tools used to make population forecasts
- to carry out population forecasts using the appropriate software (Excel, projections and simulation softwa-res)
- to understand the impact of changes in fertility, mortality and migration on population trends (numbers and structure) at various geographical levels and over time.
Main themes
Introduction to modelization and to different types of models.
Models of relations between population movement and structure (stable and quasi-stable populations)
Modelization of age structure of demographic phenomena: mortality (model life tables, laws of mortality ),
nuptiality and fertility (Coale-Trussell ), migration (Castro-Rogers).
PART II
Introdution to population forecasts, their use and limits.
Mathematical methods (exponential function, logistic function, Gompertz)
Component methods: basic principles (calculation of survivors, births, migrants)
Mortality projection methods: extrapolation of probabilities, use of model life-tables, Lee Carter methods,
Methods of fertility projections: probabilities, fertility diagrams, period versus cohort approach,
Methods of international migration projections: projections of net migration, of migration rates,
Urban and regional projections: DTCUR methods, introduction to multi-regional models
Uncertainty in forecasts: comparison of scenarios, comparison of forecasts from various sources, ex-post fore-cast analysis,
Introduction to multi-state models (household forecasts, education forecasts) and to micro-simulation models (kinship networks, )
Introduction to several models of indirect estimates or of correction of deficient or incomplete data.
Other information (prerequisite, evaluation (assessment methods), course materials recommended readings, ...)
Individual or group work
Course text and portfolio of readings.